The Failure of the 28-Article Ceasefire Plan for Ukraine: Why Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Falter

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.