Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."