How The Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the current race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still